FAQ

Sollert is a European football betting analytics platform. We build machine learning models that produce calibrated probability predictions for player prop markets — yellow cards, fouls, tackles, shots, goals, and assists. Every prediction is compared against live bookmaker odds to surface value bets with an edge score, and we provide Kelly staking recommendations to size bets relative to your bankroll.

We currently cover 5 leagues: Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A, and Ligue 1. Markets include yellow card probability, expected fouls, expected tackles, expected shots, expected goals, and expected assists.

We train separate models for each market and position group (defenders, midfielders, forwards), then combine their outputs into a calibrated ensemble. All probabilities are post-processed to ensure calibration — when we say 65%, the historical frequency is close to 65%. We track accuracy metrics for every model version and retrain when calibration degrades.

Edge is the difference between our predicted probability and the bookmaker's implied probability (derived from their odds). If we predict a 50% chance of a yellow card and the bookmaker offers odds equivalent to 40%, our edge is 10%. Betting consistently on positive-edge selections is what produces long-run profit — edge, not tips.

CLV (Closing Line Value) measures whether the odds you bet at were better than the odds at kickoff. Bookmakers sharpen their lines as kickoff approaches — if you consistently beat the closing line, it means you are identifying real edges, not getting lucky. Hit rate alone is misleading because it doesn't account for odds quality.

Kelly staking is a mathematically optimal bet sizing formula. Given your edge and the odds, it tells you what fraction of your bankroll to stake to maximise long-run growth. Sollert uses half-Kelly (more conservative) to account for model uncertainty. You enter your bankroll once and the app scales all stake recommendations to it.

The Bet Builder Lab lets you combine multiple predictions into a single multi-leg bet. It shows you the naïve combined probability (if legs were independent) and our adjusted probability (accounting for correlations between legs). This tells you whether the bet builder price offered by your bookmaker is fair value.

No. No predictions are guaranteed. Betting always carries the risk of losing money. Sollert surfaces edges — situations where the probability we estimate is higher than the bookmaker's implied probability — but individual bets will lose. Only ever bet what you can afford to lose.

Scout (free): Today's feed, match fixtures, basic cheat sheets.

Edge (£19/mo): Full edge scores, best odds, half-Kelly staking, player profiles and trends, hit rate tracking. Includes a 7-day free trial.

Sharp (£49/mo): Everything in Edge, plus Bet Builder Lab, SHAP explanations, CLV tracking, and API access.

You can upgrade or cancel anytime from your Account page. Cancellations take effect at the end of your current billing period — you won't be charged again.

Scout is free forever. Edge includes a 7-day free trial — cancel anytime, no questions asked. After 7 days it converts to £19/mo. Sharp does not offer a trial.

Payments are processed by Stripe. We accept all major credit and debit cards. We do not store card details — Stripe handles all payment data.

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