Our models find where bookmakers have the odds wrong — for yellow cards, goals, shots, and more — across 5 European leagues.
Today's predictions — example
Man City vs Wolves
Example — predictions update daily with real odds.
Every prediction timestamped before kickoff. Every outcome tracked publicly.
Find value
That's a +14pp price gap — a typical HIGH-conviction call. We surface these gaps across 6 player prop markets, every matchday, across 5 leagues.
Understand why
SHAP-based reasoning shows which factors drive each prediction.
Size the bet
Bet size scales to price gap. A 12pp gap gets a larger stake than 3pp. Half-Kelly sizing keeps risk in check.
Full coverage
Cards, tackles, fouls, shots, goals, assists — plus 5 team models.
Every prediction timestamped and immutable before the match starts.
Outcomes pulled from official match data. Win or lose, it's recorded.
We don't recommend bench players. Predictions run through a lineup model before surfacing.
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Scout (free)
Bruno Fernandes
Yellow Card
Team prediction only
Edge
Bruno Fernandes
Yellow Card
Strict referee, derby, 4 yellows this season
See if our models work. Free forever.
The full toolkit. Independent forecasts, half-Kelly staking.
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How Sollert finds edges
Most value betting tools compare bookmaker A against bookmaker B — finding gaps after the market has already moved. Sollert builds an independent probability model from referee tendencies, player archetypes, and lineup context, then shows you where the market hasn't caught up. This is why Sollert can find edges in markets too thin for sharp bookmakers to trade.
Bookmaker A odds → Bookmaker B odds → gap. Requires sharp markets to have already moved first.
Independent model (referee + archetypes + lineup) → probability → published alongside bet365's price → with explanation. Works even in illiquid player prop markets.
Non-conflicted analysis
Sollert is a subscription analytics tool. Your subscription is the same whether we tell you there are great bets today or tell you to skip today entirely. We have no incentive to manufacture confidence.
Thin matchdays are labelled thin — not padded to justify your subscription.
Half-Kelly staking keeps bet sizes conservative by design.
Calibration is reported publicly, including when it trends in the wrong direction.
Last week's model performance, one betting analytics insight, and upcoming fixture previews. No spam, unsubscribe anytime.